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Weekly Market Snapshot

August 10, 2018

Market Commentary
by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist

Next week, the mid-month economic figures have some potential to surprise, but are unlikely to significantly alter the overall economic picture. The focus is likely to be on the retail sales figures for July. Unit motor vehicle sales were reported to have fallen last month. Ex-autos, sales are expected to have risen moderately.


Indices

  Last Last Week YTD return %
DJIA 25509.23 25326.16 3.20%
NASDAQ 7891.78 7802.68 14.32%
S&P 500 2853.58 2827.22 6.73%
MSCI EAFE 1987.28 1976.62 -3.10%
Russell 2000 1690.89 1682.10 10.12%

Consumer Money Rates

  Last 1 year ago
Prime Rate 5.00 4.25
Fed Funds 1.90 1.16
30-year mortgage 4.70 3.95

Currencies

  Last 1 year ago
Dollars per British Pound 1.282 1.298
Dollars per Euro 1.153 1.177
Japanese Yen per Dollar 111.08 109.20
Canadian Dollars per Dollar 1.305 1.274
Mexican Peso per Dollar 18.693 17.972

Commodities

  Last 1 year ago
Crude Oil 66.81 48.59
Gold 1219.90 1290.10

Bond Rates

  Last 1 month ago
2-year treasury 2.63 2.58
10-year treasury 2.89 2.84
10-year municipal (TEY) 3.88 3.80

Treasury Yield Curve – 08/10/2018

Chart

As of close of business 08/09/2018


S&P Sector Performance (YTD) – 08/10/2018


Chart

As of close of business 08/09/2018


Economic Calendar

August 15  —  Retail Sales (July)
 —  Industrial Production (July)
August 16  —  Building Permits, Housing Starts (July)
August 17  —  Leading Economic Indicators (July)
 —  UM Consumer Sentiment (mid-August)
August 22  —  Existing Home Sales (July)
 —  FOMC Minutes (August 1)
August 23  —  New Home Sales (July)
 —  KC Fed Monetary Policy Symposium (Jackson Hole)
August 24  —  Durable Goods Orders (July)
August 29  —  Real GDP (2Q18, 2nd estimate)
September 3  —  Labor Day (markets closed)
September 7  —  Employment Report (August)
September 26  —  Fed Policy Decision (Powell press conference)

 

All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the Research Department of Raymond James & Associates, Inc. and are subject to change. There is no assurance any of the forecasts mentioned will occur or that any trends mentioned will continue in the future. Investing involves risks including the possible loss of capital. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. International investing is subject to additional risks such as currency fluctuations, different financial accounting standards by country, and possible political and economic risks, which may be greater in emerging markets. While interest on municipal bonds is generally exempt from federal income tax, it may be subject to the federal alternative minimum tax, and state or local taxes. In addition, certain municipal bonds (such as Build America Bonds) are issued without a federal tax exemption, which subjects the related interest income to federal income tax. Municipal bonds may be subject to capital gains taxes if sold or redeemed at a profit. Taxable Equivalent Yield (TEY) assumes a 35% tax rate.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index of 30 widely held stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ National Stock Market. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks. The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) index is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of the international stock market. The Russell 2000 index is an unmanaged index of small cap securities which generally involve greater risks. An investment cannot be made directly in these indexes. The performance noted does not include fees or charges, which would reduce an investor's returns. U.S. government bonds and treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. U.S. government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government. Treasury bills are certificates reflecting short-term (less than one year) obligations of the U.S. government.

Commodities trading is generally considered speculative because of the significant potential for investment loss. Markets for commodities are likely to be volatile and there may be sharp price fluctuations even during periods when prices overall are rising. Specific sector investing can be subject to different and greater risks than more diversified investments. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the annual total market value of all final goods and services produced domestically by the U.S. The federal funds rate (“Fed Funds”) is the interest rate at which banks and credit unions lend reserve balances to other depository institutions overnight. The prime rate is the underlying index for most credit cards, home equity loans and lines of credit, auto loans, and personal loans. Material prepared by Raymond James for use by financial advisors. Data source: Bloomberg, as of close of business August 9, 2018.

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